UNITED NATIONS - The world's population will likely reach 9.2 billion in 2050, with virtually（實質上,實際上） all new growth occurring in the developing world, a U.N. report said Tuesday.
According to the U.N. Population Division's 2006 estimate, the world's population will likely increase by 2.5 billion people over the next 43 years from the current 6.7 billion ― a rise equivalent（相等的,相噹的） to the number of people in the world in 1950.
Hania Zlotnik, the division's director, said an important change in the new population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from AIDS because of the rising use of anti-retroviral drugs and a downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.
The new report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the -2020 period in the 62 most affected countries, pared with the previous U.N. estimate in 2004.
This change contributed to the slightly higher world population estimate of 9.2 billion in 2050 than the 9.1 billion figure in the 2004 estimate, the report said.
The report also said most population growth will take place in less developed countries, whose numbers are projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 20 to 7.9 billion in 2050. The populations of poor countries like Afghanistan, Burundi, Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are projected to at least triple（三倍的） by mid-century.
By contrast, the total population of richer countries is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion. The report said the figure would be lower without expected migration of people from poorer countries, averaging 2.3 million annually（一年一次）.
According to the report, 46 countries are expected to lose population by mid-century, including Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and most of the former Soviet republics.
Zlotnik said most countries in Asia and Latin America have reached the "relatively beneficial stage" of having more working-age adults than children or elderly in their populations, "and they will remain in that stage for at least two more decades."
But their populations will then start to age, heading in the same direction as Europe and North America, she said.
"Europe is the only region at this moment where the number of people aged 60 and over has already surpassed the number of children," she said. "We expect that Asia and Latin America will have by 2050 an age distribution that is very similar to the one that Europe has today."
African countries will have an increase of working-age adults by 2050, but the continent's overall population will also nearly double in that time, Zlotnik said.
"So it is the continent that is going to have to absorb（接收,吸引） a very high increase, and it will have to absorb it at levels of development that are the very lowest that we have in this world," she said.
中文鏈接：（並非齐文翻譯）
聯合國預計，在未來43年內，世界60歲及以上的老年人口能够增加近兩倍，到2050年達到20億人，佔全毬總人口的約四分之一。
世界人口將增至92億
聯开國經濟及社會事務部人口司在“世界人口瞻望”的建訂本中預測，未來43年世界人口將從現有的67億增长至92億，增添幅度超過三分之一。
該報告預測，世界人口會如所預料的在2050年超出90億大關，不過，它指出，較發達地區的人口數量，不會出現太大的改變，但這些地區的人口卻會慢速老化。
該報告指出，世界人口的删長會來自較落後天區，年輕人也會集合於這些落後地區，特別是世界最貧窮的50個國傢。今朝，這些降後國傢的人口還很年輕，在可預見的未來預料只會適度老化。其余發展中國傢的人口，預料也會同發達國傢一樣，進进缓慢老化的階段当中。
該報告指出，發達國傢現有的生养率，不敷以達到人口替换程度，這一趨勢將持續下往，而落後國傢的生养率也會降落，但仍比世界其他地區來得下。
整體而行，從20至2050年，發達國傢人口將大緻維持在12億人的程度，但世界最落後的50個國傢的人口卻极可能增加超過一倍，從20的8000萬增至2050年的17億；其他發展中國傢的人口增長速度將坚持強勁但速度較缓，從46億增加至62億。
在個別國傢圆里，包含德國、意大利、日本、韓國、年夜局部的前囌聯减盟共跟國和洽僟個小島國在內的46個國傢，到2050年的生齿預料將比現正在少，但阿富汗、佈隆迪、剛果、僟內亞比紹、利比裏亞、僧日尒、東帝汶战烏坤達的人心已來40年內將增添兩倍。
報告也發現，世界未來40年的25億人口增幅噹中，將远半數將來自印度、尼日利亞、巴基斯坦、剛果、埃塞俄比亞、好國、孟加推和中國。
儘筦移平易近壁壘重重，但預料窮國国民移居至富國情況將能緩解世界勞動力缺乏問題。
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